S&P, Nasdaq close at fresh records as traders shake off tariff worries

The S&P 500 notched a new all-time closing high on Thursday. The broad market benchmark rose 0.27% and closed at 6,280.46.

The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a record high for the second day in a row, gaining 0.09% to end at 20,630.67.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 192.34 points, or 0.43%, to finish at 44,650.64.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Tesla should see a bump in deliveries in the coming quarters, but still has challenges ahead, according to Wells Fargo.

The firm, which reiterated its underweight rating, raised its estimates for Tesla deliveries to 1.48 million units in 2025 from 1.4 million. However, that is largely due to stronger second- and third-quarter numbers as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) credits expire Sept. 30, analyst Colin Langan wrote in a note Wednesday.

“This likely pulls forward volumes into Q3. We now expect Q3 deliveries to eclipse 400K units, followed by a large drop in Q4,” he said.

Langan anticipates Tesla will cut pricing by 4% in the fourth quarter to mitigate the end of the credits, which implies a “meaningful” margin step down in the quarter.

His price target of $120 suggests 59% downside from Wednesday’s close.

— Michelle Fox

ITB 5D chart

This would mark the fund’s third straight weekly gain for the first time since September 2024. It has risen around 13% in that period — its best three-week stretch since July 2024.

— Nick Wells, Lisa Kailai Han

Bitcoinclimbed to new all-time high of $113,863.31 on Thursday, building on its previous recordreached just a day earlier, as investors jumped into risk assets and liquidated short positions.

Over the past 24 hours, $318 million in short liquidations have occurred across centralized exchanges, according to CoinGlass.

Altcoins, or cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin, joined the rally for a second day after many investors hadstarted to lose hopethat they would show signs of life this year.

Bitcoin hastraded in a tight range for several weeksdespite billions of dollars flowing into bitcoin exchange traded funds, which has helped the price stay above the $100,000 level for more than 60 consecutive days. Public companies have also been on a bitcoin buying spree andoutpaced bitcoin ETF inflows in the second quarter.

Read the full story here.

— Tanaya Macheel

The key themes that have defined the market in the first half of the year will likely continue in the back half, and investors should look beyond traditional sector funds to play them, according to BlackRock’s iShares.

“What the markets are sort of slow to fully appreciate right now is that the role that themes are playing in the market this year is almost akin to the role that sectors have previously played in the markets,” said Jay Jacobs, head of U.S. equity ETFs at BlackRock.

The iShares team released an updated thematic outlook on Thursday. The ideas include the major themes of AI and geopolitical change, given ever-changing tariff picture and multiple conflicts. But Jacobs said the firm’s U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF (THRO) is also finding success by focusing on consumer stocks with strong supply chains as a way to play defense, as opposed to toggling back and forth between consumer staples and consumer discretionary.

“It’s a more nuanced take on the consumer space than what sectors are delivering,” Jacobs said.

THRO is up nearly 7% year to date, slightly outperforming the S&P 500. The fund, which was launched in 2021, is now approaching $5 billion.

— Jesse Pound

During Thursday’s trading session, 26 stocks in the S&P 500 were trading at new 52-week highs.

Tickers that hit this milestone included:

• Royal Caribbeantradingat all-time high levels back to its IPO in April 1993
• Ralph Lauren trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in June 1997
• BlackRock trading at all-time high levels back to its IPO in 1999
• Dollar Treetrading at levels not seen since July 2024
• Southwest trading at levels not seen since July 2023
• 3Mtrading at levels not seen since September 2021
• Broadcom trading at all-time high levels back through Avago history and its IPO in August 2009
• Texas Instrumentstrading at all-time highs back to when it first began trading in 1953
• Coinbasetrading at levels not seen since April 2021
• Hilton Worldwide trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in December 2013

Stocks that hit new 52-week lows on Thursday were Conagra Brands, Campbell’s, General Mills and Elevance Health.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said the central bank probably still has a little way to go as it reduces the amount of bonds it is holding.

The Fed’s balance sheet currently sits at $6.7 trillion, off a peak of nearly $9 trillion from a few years ago but well above levels prior to the Covid pandemic. The level of holdings has come down as maturing proceeds have been allowed to roll off rather than being reinvested. The balance sheet more than doubled in the early days of Covid as the Fed sought to support the economy through asset purchases.

Under Waller’s view, the program, known as quantitative tightening, can continue for a while longer and still provide the level of reserves banks need to be secure. He projected that the balance sheet likely could come down to $5.8 trillion.

“I agree that the balance sheet needs to shrink but … not by as much as some believe it should,” Waller said during a speech in Dallas. “Given my rough estimate of the level of reserves needed to be ample, I believe we can likely continue to let a share of maturing and prepaying securities roll off our balance sheet for some time, reducing reserve balances.”

—Jeff Cox

Shares of Tesla jumped 2.5% on Thursday after CEO Elon Musk said in an X post that the company is expanding its robotaxi service area in Austin this weekend, and could reach the Bay Area in a “month or two” subject to regulatory approvals.

Musk also announced Tesla will bring xAI’sGrok chatbotto its vehicles by “next week at the latest.” xAI officially launched updatedthe Grok 4overnight as the company continued to face backlash for the vitriol written by the chatbot. Read more here.

— Pia Singh

SMH 5D chart

This also puts the exchange-traded fund on pace for its seventh straight weekly gain. This would mark its longest such streak since an 8-week rally ended in early March 2019.

The ETF hit a new all-time high on Thursday. The fund has been driven higher by gains in Nvidia, which has added 2.4% this week and crossed over the $4 trillion market capitalization level on Wednesday.

— Nick Wells, Lisa Kailai Han

In a Thursday note, UBS stood by its positive stance on emerging market assets. The bank maintained its neutral rating on emerging market equities, noting that it sees “decent mid-single-digit upside” in the next 12 months.

“As investors seek to broaden their sources of return, emerging markets offer access to unique macro and policy cycles, structural growth opportunities, and diversification benefits — especially amid rising geopolitical fragmentation and shifting supply chains,” the bank wrote. “Emerging market equities remain under-owned and have only recently begun to attract inflows, which could support a more constructive medium-term outlook for the asset class.”

Specifically, UBS singled out the secular growth stories in Taiwan and India.

“We also like mainland China’s tech sector due to its resilient earnings and monetization potential, as well as Brazil given attractive valuations and solid economic growth,” the bank added.

— Lisa Kailai Han

EL 5D chart

The bank set a price target of $110 per share, implying upside of 27% from the stock’s Wednesday closing price.

As a catalyst, Bank of America cited improving demand in Asia that could help drive Estée Lauder’s sales growth and margin expansion.

— Adrian van Hauwermeiren, Lisa Kailai Han

There’s good news ahead for the M&A market, according to Deutsche Bank.

“Our M&A growth indicator predicts dealmaking will continue to decline this summer but could start bottoming out in Q3 — we see a recovery in H2 and in the coming years,” the bank wrote in a Wednesday note.

Going forward, Deutsche Bank is also optimistic on the state of new listings and initial public offerings in the U.S.

“New listings show some green shoots in absolute terms and this underscores relative U.S. exceptionalism. The types of companies that went public YTD also underscore our view that U.S. innovation power is second to none and that the country has, by far, the deepest, most liquid, most diversified capital markets in the world,” the bank said.

It continued: “Will this carry on into H2? We believe that the roaring animal spirits that lifted lossmaking stocks in Q2 mean riskier deals that were shelved in H1 are likely to be back in H2. Risk assets continue to perform well and volatility and credit risk remain low across many ways of slicing and dicing the various indicators.”

— Lisa Kailai Han

XME 5D chart

The exchange-traded fund was on pace for its best day since April 9, when it gained 9.7% in a session. The ETF was boosted by shares of MP Materials, last up 54% after the company said that the Pentagon would become its largest shareholder.

— Gina Francolla, Lisa Kailai Han

A resumption in DOGE layoffs — combined with the ongoing hiring freezes — will lead to weakening in the job market, Wolfe Research wrote in a Wednesday note.

However, the firm noted that this weakening was unlikely to be too substantial.

“At the margin, this adds to the softening in the labor market but likely isn’t a game changer for the Fed — at least not ahead of the next live meeting in September,” wrote Stephanie Roth, the firm’s chief economist.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Initial unemployment benefit filings unexpectedly declined last week as the pace of layoffs held low, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ending July 5, down 5,000 from the previous period and below the Dow Jones estimate for 235,000.

However, continuing claims, which run a week behind, continued to climb. The total increased to 1.96 million, up 10,000 to the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021 as long-term unemployment held higher.

— Jeff Cox

Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading.

• Delta Air Lines — Shares advanced nearly 12% before the opening bell after the airline reinstated its 2025 profit outlook, and second-quarter revenue and net income exceeded analyst estimates.

• Brazilian stocks — The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) dropped nearly 2% premarket after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports into the U.S. Brazil’s president said the country would respond with similar duties of its own targeting American products. Shares of oil giant Petrobras fell more than 1%.

• WK Kellogg — The breakfast food company gained more than 50% following news that Italian chocolate maker Ferrero is nearing a roughly $3 billion deal to buy the cereal maker.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

MP 5D chart

The Pentagon will buy a newly created class of preferred shares that can be converted into the company’s common stock. MP Materials will use the proceeds to invest in its magnet production capacity and to expand its rare earths processing capabilities.

— Spencer Kimball, Lisa Kailai Han

Shares of Delta Air Lines jumped about 11% premarket after the company reinstated its 2025 profit outlook and CEO Ed Bastian said bookings have stabilized.

Delta had pulled its outlook for the year in April. The airline now expects adjusted earnings of between $5.25 and $6.25 a share in 2025, down from a January forecast of more than $7.35 a share.

The carrier’s outlook for summer travel beat Wall Street expectations, with Bastian saying bookings have stabilized albeit at a lower than the start of the year.

— Leslie Josephs, Spencer Kimball

Bank of America expects firmer inflation on the horizon.

“We expect inflation to accelerate over the coming months in large part due to tariff related price increases,” wrote economist Stephen Juneau. “But tariffs aren’t the only reason to expect firmer inflation in the coming months; the rebound in stock prices is another.”

More specifically, the economist pointed out that the recent rebound in equity prices means that portfolio management fees should turn into a driver of inflation in the upcoming months.

— Lisa Kailai Han

EWZ 5-day chart

The S&P 500’s information technology and industrial sectors rose to close at records on Wednesday, lifting the broad market index to its first winning day in three.

The tech sector gained 0.9%, catching a tailwind from gains in Nvidia, which was up nearly 2%, and Palantir, which added about 2.5%. Nvidia’s ascent briefly pushed it into a $4 trillion market capitalization during the session.

The industrial sector added 0.7%. Boeing and Caterpillar were among the notable winners in the space, up 3.7% and 2%, respectively.

—Darla Mercado, Chris Hayes

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, partially due to the trial against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for his role in an alleged coup attempt to overturn his loss in the country’s 2022 election.

In a letter shared on Truth Social, Trump called Brazil’s treatment of Bolsonaro “an international disgrace” and the ongoing prosecution a “Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!”

Trump also accused Brazil in the letter of having a “very unfair trade relationship” with the U.S., adding that the U.S. is launching an investigation into Brazil for its trade practices.

— Kevin Breuninger, Sean Conlon

Bitcoinhit a fresh record on Wednesday afternoon as anNvidia-led rally in equities helped push the price of the cryptocurrency higher into the stock market close. Just before 4:00 p.m. ET, it hit a high of $112,052.24, surpassing its May 22 record of $111,999.

The flagship cryptocurrency has beentrading in a tight range for several weeksdespite billions of dollars flowing into bitcoin exchange traded funds and public companies racheting up their bitcoin purchases.

“The same fundamentals of a scarce asset are at play amid record-breaking budgets and debt ceilings,” said Chris Kline, chief operating officer and cofounder of BitcoinIRA. “There is a friendly regulatory environment, and bitcoin has gained legitimacy from institutional adoption. Additionally, the rumor mill has continued to accelerate speculation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may either step down or be removed, which has crypto bulls excited about a potential rate cut.”

“This is a perfect storm for even the smallest catalyst to springboard bitcoin and crypto overall to new price discovery levels and … more volatility,” he added.

— Tanaya Macheel

Some stocks are making big moves in extended trading Wednesday:

WK Kellogg – Shares surged more than 55% after The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that chocolate maker Ferrero is nearing a deal to buy the breakfast food company for about $3 billion. The acquisition could be finalized as early as this week, the report said.

PTC – The global software stock fell almost 3%, reversing some of the gains seen during the day’s regular session. On Wednesday, PTC shares soared more than 17% after a Bloomberg report, which cited people familiar with the matter, said that Autodesk is exploring a possible takeover of the company. Autodesk shares, which finished Wednesday’s session with a more than 2% decline, were likewise more than 2% lower after hours.

— Sean Conlon

U.S. stock futures were relatively unchanged on Wednesday evening.

S&P 500 futures hovered around the flatline just after 6 p.m. ET, as did Nasdaq 100 futures. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were likewise flat.

— Sean Conlon