S&P 500 falls Friday after Fed’s Warsh highlights inflation worries, but index posts positive week

U.S. equities moved lower on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to end the session at 7,711.76, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.52% to 26,402.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed just 9.45 points, or 0.02%, to 53,559.99.

— Sean Conlon

Nvidia‘s post-earnings gain hasn’t helped the broader semiconductor sector much this week.

The chipmaker rose more than 1% this week, lifted by its nearly 9% jump on Thursday on the back of a strong earnings reporting and outlook. But the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has slipped more than 3% week to date.

Nvidia vs. SMH ETF, 5-day

Tech came back in a big way this week, but whether artificial intelligence can sustain its advance — especially as expectations of a rate hike grow — remains to be seen.

Next week’s jobs report should also give some clarity on the path for monetary policy, after the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh doubled down on a stance against inflation even with growing pockets of weakness in the U.S. economy.

“It’s all about artificial intelligence,” said Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. “And I think that’s going to continue through next week as well as everyone’s trying to reorient where they want to position their AI plays.”

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Sarah Min

Warsh Friday speech at Jackson Hole managed to paint a clearer picture for September, said Seema Shah, a chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

“Although we expect incoming data to improve, the risk of a September hike has increased. The positive market reaction highlights that investors place a premium on policy clarity, even when that clarity carries a more hawkish message,” she said.

— Ananya Chetia

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he generally agreed with Chairman Kevin Warsh’s characterization of the U.S. economy and sees inflation as the main problem.

“I agree with the analysis that the chairman put forth that we’ve been above the target. It was going the wrong way. We’ve gotten a couple of months of more benign readings, but that certainly doesn’t feel like out of the woods,” the policymaker said in a CNBC interview from the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Though Goolsbee did not commit to a policy path, he said “all eyes got to be for Fed action.”

Markets priced in a high higher probability for a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting following Warsh’s keynote address in which he said “we have work to do” if inflation readings don’t improve.

— Jeff Cox

Here are some of the companies making headlines in midday trading:

• Workday– Shares of the enterprise artificial intelligence platform jumped 6% after Workday posted second-quarter results that topped estimates. The company earned $2.75 per share on an adjusted basis and posted revenue of $2.65 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG sought $2.61 per share and $2.64 billion.
• Salesforce– The software company continued its post-earnings rally. Shares gained 3% on Friday, adding to Salesforce’s advance ofmore than 22%from a day earlier. The company beat estimates on thetop and bottom linesin the second quarter and posted a $2.6 billion gain on strategic investments, including its stake in AI startup Anthropic.
• Nvidia– Shares of the chip giant dropped more than 3%. Nvidia saw a rally of nearly 9% in the prior session, helping to lift the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to their best daily performances since Aug. 4.

Read here for the full list.

— Ananya Chetia

Thirty-day fed funds futures prices now suggest a 57.5% chance the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark lending rates quarter percentage point from their current range of 3.50% to 3.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On Thursday, a day before Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s policy address at the central bank’s annual symposium Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, odds of a rate increase next month stood at closer to a third, or 35.4%.

The current odds are even higher than they were a month ago, when chances policy would be tightened stood at 55.8%.

— Scott Schnipper

Kevin Warsh’skeynote speechat the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. has altered investors’ outlook for an interest rate hike in September after the Fed chairman said he was committed to fighting inflation.

Traders onprediction marketplatformKalshinow believe there are 48% odds that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points. Before Warsh’s speech, odds that the central bank would maintain the status quo in September were nearly 70%. Read more.

— Davis Giangiulio

Treasury yields at the short end spiked while those on the long end edged lower after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in a keynote address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that the central bank still has “work to do” to bring inflation under control.

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to policy expectations, jumped more than 6 basis points higher at 4.298%. Read more.

US2Y, 1-day

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh expressed concern Friday about elevated inflation, but gave no indication of whether he thinks interest rates should be higher while also declining to outline the conditions under which he’d advocate for a change in policy.

Warsh’s closely watched remarks at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., avoided committing either to forward guidance — or verbal cues about the Fed’s intentions — or reaction function, the economic signals that would warrant an adjustment in rates.

Instead, he used the speech to outline his philosophy on policymaking while carefully sidestepping any signals on what he thinks should be done to achieve the Fed’s dual mandate of low inflation and full employment.

“I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision,” Warsh said in prepared remarks for a group that includes his fellow policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee as well as economists and media members.

Read the full story and watch Warsh’s speech live here.

— Jeff Cox

The S&P 500 began Friday’s session around the flatline.

The broad market index rose 0.1% just after 9:30 a.m. ET, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 92 points, or 0.2%.

— Sean Conlon

Shares of Tyson Foods and the meat processor JBS are down after President Donald Trump said he is “authorizing legal documents to be drawn” to allow farmers and ranchers to “PROCESS THEIR OWN FOOD.”

Tyson and JBS fell more than 1% premarket on the president’s comments.

Trump, in a Truth Social post, attacked Big Ag as a “nasty Monopoly” that he wants to break.

“There are, essentially, 4 of them, a very non competitive number, and they make life miserable for our wonderful Farmers and Ranchers, and I can’t let that happen, can I?” Trump said.

— Spencer Kimball

Wheat and corn are at a more than three-year high and soybeans sell for almost a three-year high, darkening the outlook for livestock feed and food ingredient inflation.

Wheat on Friday touched $7.725 a bushel while corn climbed to $5.4125 a bushel, both at the highest levels since late July, 2023. Soybeans touched $12.795 a bushel, the highest since January 2024.

Wheat is up 10% this week, more than 20% in just the past month and 51% this year. Corn is higher by 6% this week, 16% in August and 22% in 2026. Soybeans have moved up 3% this week, 7% in August and 22% in 2026.

Attacks by Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea have disrupted grain shipments and “halted almost all grain shipments through ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which used to account ​for 70% of all Russian grain exports,” Reuters said. Corn prices have risen because of poor summer weather in the U.S., while soybeans have climbed partly because of stepped up Chinese demand.

Teucrium Wheat Fund is up 36% in 2026

Marvell Technology’spost-earnings decline is no reason to steer clear, according to several analysts on the Street.

Marvell posted $2.74 billion in revenue for the second quarter, narrowly topping the $2.72 billion anticipated by analysts polled by FactSet. It also reported earnings of 94 cents per share for the same period, or slightly about the Street’s consensus estimate of 93 cents.

While those numbers exceeded expectations, they failed to impress investors, who sent the stock down around 8% in the premarket.

That said, Bank of America, UBS, Barclays, Wells Fargo and Citi remain bullish on the semiconductor designer.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about their views on the name here.

— Liz Napolitano

Check out the companies making the biggest moves premarket:

• PayPal—Shares plunged nearly 16% for the company afterBloombergreported Thursday night, citing people familiar with the matter, that buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe decided to not pursue PayPal . The deal would have been one of the largest leveraged buyouts, the sources told the outlet.
• Affirm— The buy now, pay later company jumped 13% after it reported $1.17 billion in revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, topping an LSEG estimate of $1.11 billion. The company’s first-quarter guidance for revenue is also above estimates.
• Elastic N.V.– Shares jumped over 17% for the data analytics company after full-year guidance topped analysts’ expectations. The company sees adjusted earnings per share in a range of $3.29 to $3.37. Analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $3.24 per share in terms of guidance.

Read here for the full list.

— Ananya Chetia

The S&P 500 information technology sector finished Thursday’s session up 3.4%, while all other sectors closed in the red.

That marks the biggest gain where information technology led and all other sectors lost ground since March 22, 2001, when information technology gained about 6.5%.

Among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, information technology is the second-best performer this year, seeing a rise of 23.7%. That’s behind only energy, whose year-to-date advance is about 37.7%.

— Nick Wells and Sean Conlon

Marvell Technology shares fell 8% in premarket trading despite a second-quarter revenue beat, as its raised fiscal 2028 outlook failed to meet investors’ elevated expectations.

The chipmaker said it now expects revenue to grow about 50% year-on-year to around $18 billion, higher than its previous forecast of $16.5 billion.

Revenue rose 37% to $2.7 billion in its fiscal second quarter. That came in $39 million above the company guidance provided in May.

Marvell, which makes networking, connectivity and custom chips used in AI data centers, offered limited detail on its fiscal 2028 outlook, dampening investor sentiment after hopes that a Google partnership worth up to $12.2 billion in shares would further boost earnings.

The stock was last trading down 8%. It’s up 184% this year, buoyed by demand for its products used in AI infrastructure.

Marvell Technology stock since the start of the year.

Treasury yields were little changed early Friday as global investors await the highly anticipated keynote speech from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole.

The10-year Treasurynote was less than 1 basis point higher, at 4.676%, at 4 a.m. ET. The30-year Treasurybond yield was less than 1 basis point higher at 5.199%, while the yield on the2-year Treasurynote was flat at 4.229%.

One basis point equals 0.01%. Yields and prices move inversely.

Marvell Technology.

PayPal.

Gap.

European stock markets were broadly higher in early Friday trade, bouncing back from two sessions in the red.

Autos and utilities led the charge, both up 0.95%.

The regional Stoxx 600 index is heading for a monthly gain of around 1%, its weakest performance since March, when it dropped 8% amid a global sell-off.

Stoxx 600 index.

Asia-Pacific market closed mixed Friday, with no major regional catalysts and focus on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clues on U.S. rate path.

Japan’s benchmarkNikkei 225 added 0.41%, ending the trading day at 66,405.56, while the Topix rose 0.72% to 4,146.71. South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.79% at 6,788.88 and the small-cap Kosdaq ended the trading day flat at 838.41.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.46% to 4,609.18, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat as of its last hour of trade.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.6% to 9,092.3.

— Lee Ying Shan

Bitcoin slipped 0.55% to $79,623.97 on Friday, extending its pullback after briefly topping $81,000 earlier this week.

The cryptocurrency has retreated after running into resistance between $80,000 and $82,000, according to David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

Its rapid climb of nearly 30% since the start of last week had pushed momentum indicators into “overbought” territory, making profit-taking and fresh short positions more likely, he said.

Traders are also turning cautious ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading and Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, both of which could shape broader risk appetite.

Morrison said bitcoin’s surge was partly driven by the so-called “dollar debasement trade,” as concerns over mounting U.S. federal debt and trade tensions prompted some investors to seek alternatives to the greenback. Gold has also benefited from that theme, he added.

Oil fell Friday as traders continued to assess developments in the Middle East, having gained overnight after Washingtonconfirmedthat the U.S. was not in talks with ‌Iran.

Futures for international benchmark Brent crude for October delivery fell 0.36% to $89.38 a barrel. U.S.West Texas Intermediatefuturesfor October declined 0.26% to $83.31 per barrel.

While all options remain on the table, the White House ​said no negotiations were happening between the U.S. and Iran.

Oilprices are likely to remain tied to the pace of the negotiations, any credible progress, and changes in the security backdrop” around the Strait of Hormuz, said Thadeu Dos Santos, regional director at trading platform Infinox.

“A clearer path to an agreement could renew downward pressure as supply prospects improve, while any escalation in tensions or new incidents could quickly restore the upward trend in crude prices,” Santos added.

—Justina Lee

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened 0.32% lower on Friday, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.2%.

Lombard Odier remains positive on Chinese equities, naming China as one of its preferred emerging markets alongside South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil.

The bank said in a monthly investment strategy report released Wednesday that Chinese stocks had staged “a big rebound over the past month,” after previously lagging their emerging-market peers.

“We are positive on the broad China market, including onshore equities alongside offshore markets,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

Onshore shares offer more direct exposure to AI infrastructure, semiconductor localization and policy-driven investment, while offshore stocks offer more attractive valuations and potential gains from improving sentiment, cloud growth and AI monetization, they said.

Lombard Odier also pointed to “strong policy support, a rapidly expanding AI ecosystem, robust export growth” and the movement of household wealth away from property and toward financial assets. These factors support “a compelling case for a balanced allocation across both onshore and offshore Chinese equities,” it added.

— Lee Ying Shan

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Friday.

Japan’s benchmarkNikkei 225 added 0.19%, while the Topix rose 0.39%. South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.16%, and the small-cap Kosdaq opened flat.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.25%.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is due to deliver a closely watched keynote address Friday at Jackson Hole, as investors look for any signals on the economy, monetary policy and the direction of interest rates.

— Lee Ying Shan

Asia-Pacific markets were poised to trade mixed Friday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech for clues on the path of U.S. interest rates.

Japan’sNikkei 225was set to fall, with the Chicago futures contract at 66,040 compared with the index’s previous close of 66,131.98.

Hong Kong’sHang Seng indexfutures were at 25,476 compared with the index’s last close of 25,565.74.

Futures for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 last traded at 9,143 while the index closed at 9,038.2.

— Lee Ying Shan

These are some of the stocks making big moves in extended trading:

• Gap– Shares of the clothing retailer jumped about 14% after Gap announced Michael Francis willtake the helm at Old Navy,starting Nov. 2. He succeeds Haio Barbeito, who has been the CEO since 2022. Adjusted earnings for Gap in the second quarter topped estimates, coming in at 52 cents per share versus the LSEG consensus estimate of 48 cents.
• Marvell Technology— The semiconductor stock was down about 6%. Marvell called for current quarter adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share, plus or minus 5 cents, while analysts polled by LSEG anticipated $1.07 per share. The company also sees non-GAAP gross margin for the period in a range of 57.5% to 58.5%, versus the StreetAccount consensus call for 58.5%.
• Autodesk– The maker of 3D design software slid 5% after its earnings projections disappointed Wall Street. Autodesk sees adjusted earnings ranging from $3.04 to $3.09 per share in the third quarter, while analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $3.14 per share. Full-year adjusted earnings guidance was $12.52 to $12.60 per share, compared to the $12.60 anticipated.

See the full list here.

— Alex Harring

Futures tied to the Dow and S&P 500 are little changed shortly after 6 p.m. ET Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.2%.

— Alex Harring