S&P 500 closes flat, rebounding from lows as traders buy the dip after U.S.-Iran attacks: Live updates

The S&P 500 finished Monday’s session relatively unchanged.

The broad-based index climbed 0.04% to end the day at 6,881.62, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.36% to 22,748.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, dropped 73.14 points, or 0.15%, to 48,904.78.

— Sean Conlon

Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel raised his S&P 500 earnings per share forecast to $304, from $296 previously, after the latest reporting season showed strong corporate earnings.

The strong beats in the latest earnings season suggests the stock market is poised for further upside, even after geopolitical risk and fears of AI disruption weighed on the indexes.

“A Market hedged for Conflict suggests upside delayed, not derailed,” he wrote on Sunday.

“Near term situation fluid yet earnings + few systemic risks suggests 6,520 support in S&P 500 holds on the way to resumption of larger rally,” he continued. “Look to add exposure to AI Disruption names on weakness.”

On Monday, the S&P 500 turned positive, staging a massive reversal from the session’s earlier losses.

— Sarah Min

Retail investors rushed into a pair of trades on Monday following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Retail investors sent millions of dollars on a net basis into the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and Palantir in the first hour of Monday’s session, according to VandaTrack. On the other hand, flows were more mixed on the State Street SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).

“The message from the tape is straightforward,” Vanda analyst Ashwin Bhakre told CNBC. “This wasn’t broad panic. It was selective repositioning.” Read more.

— Alex Harring

Short sellers have sharply increased their bets against software stocks, according to Deutsche Bank Research.

Software shorts are at the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with median short interest across software companies spiking to over 5%, marking the highest level in about 17 years — or the 93rd percentile over the past two decades — according to an analysis from the firm. Median short interest in the group peaked at over 9% during the 2008 financial crisis.

“The plunge in Software stocks has seen them fall 25% below their 200-day moving average, worse than the selloffs during the 2022 unwind of Tech and the March 2020 lockdown panic but not as deep as during the 2008-09 GFC or the bursting of the Tech bubble in 2000-2002,” Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte wrote in a Feb. 27 note to clients.

Shares of software companies have plunged this year on fears that rapidly developing artificial intelligence tools will disrupt their businesses.

— Pia Singh

Goldman Sachs is moving to the sidelines on Novo Nordisk, downgrading the stock to neutral from buy after the Danish drugmaker’s disappointing trial results for its next-generation weight loss drug.

Novo Nordisk said last week that the drug, CagriSema, didn’t demonstrate non-inferiority on weight loss when compared to Eli Lilly’s rival drug tirzepatide after 84 weeks.

As a result, Goldman has cut its topline and operating profit estimates across 2026 through 2030 by about 6% and 10%, respectively. In addition, it is reducing its discounted cash flow and target multiple as the pipeline becomes more uncertain heading into semaglutide patent expirations in 2031 and 2032.

“Therefore, while we could see some routes to upside, supported by the Wegovy pill launch, obesity volume unlock in the Medicare channel and the ziltivekimab Phase 3 ZEUS read out (2H’26), we believe the stock is now a ‘show-me story’, which could hold back performance,” analyst James Quigley wrote in a note Monday.

U.S.-listed shares tumbled 21% last week and were down nearly 1% on Monday. The stock also hit a 52-week low on Monday.

— Michelle Fox

.SPX vs. .SPXEW 1-day chart.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he sees a meaningful chance that the conflict in the Middle East could ultimately result in a lasting peace in the region, adding that markets have so far reacted in a measured way.

There’s “the hope that this might lead to a long, just peace in the Middle East. I think the odds of that is higher,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC Monday. “And obviously the sooner the better. And you see what’s doing in the markets, not dramatic. The economy’s not often driven by something like that, unless it’s prolonged.”

— Yun Li

In a Monday note, Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish downgraded Blue Owl Capital to an equal weight rating from overweight.

Shares of the private credit poster child have plunged 50% over the past 12 months and 28% this year alone.

OWL 1Y chart

Fears have increased that the private credit industry could be cracking because of its exposure to software industry loans while Wall Street has tried to open up the market to retail investors. Blue Owl also plummeted after it permanently restricted withdrawals from one of its retail-focused debt funds amid plans to wind down the portfolio.

Budish now views Wall Street’s estimates for the stock as too high, and sees it closer to fairly priced on an earnings growth basis, he wrote.

“Our call here is not predicated on any assumption of worsening credit performance — though we acknowledge that this risk exists — but on numbers,” Budish said.

His revised price target of $11 implies upside of 4% from Blue Owl’s Friday close of $10.55.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Bitcoin came under pressure early Monday amid escalating violence in the Middle East, proving once again investors have little faith in the asset as a safe haven.

The cryptocurrency was trading roughly flat, hovering around $65,500 before the bell. However, bitcoin bounced later in the session, rising to just below $70,000 at around 11:50 a.m. ET., putting it up more than 6% on the day.

Nevertheless, bitcoin has plunged down more than 20% over the past year. By comparison, gold has risen about 89% during the same period.

The U.S. and Israel initiated Saturday a series of military strikes on Iran,killing the Islamic state’s Supreme LeaderAyatollah Ali Khamenei and prompting Iran to launch retaliatory attacks. Since then, the conflict has shown signs of deepening, sparking investors’ flight from cryptocurrencies and equities.

— Liz Napolitano

AeroVironment shares saw a big reversal on Monday after the company lost exclusivity on a major contract, prompting a triple downgrade on the stock from Raymond James. The stock plunged about 19% in afternoon trading — a major reversal from its pop earlier in the day.

TheUnited StatesSpace Force announced it is reopening its Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource, or SCAR, program to build mobile ground stations for tracking and commanding spacecraft, after initially awarding the program to AeroVironment-owned Blue Halo. The $1.4 billion program was launched in 2022, and was AeroVironment’s largest program of record, per Raymond James.

“SCAR was under a stop work order and now appears to be at risk of share loss or exclusion as the government determines its acquisition strategy, which could include adding vendors or using new vendors entirely,” Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale wrote in a Monday note to clients, downgrading AeroVironment to underperform from strong buy.

The move from Space Force also kicks off a major compression cycle to AeroVironment’s backlog, Gesuale said. The company had $2.8 billion worth of total backlog and this could erase between $1 billion and $1.4 billion, adding uncertainty to forward estimates, he said.

AeroVironment stock performance over the past year.

Shares of AeroVironment are down more than 15% year to date after Monday’s plunge. The stock had risen earlier in the session amid a broader boost among defense stocks, which rose on escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

— Pia Singh

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway dipped roughly 5% on Monday after a disappointing earnings report.

Berkshire reported a sharp decline in operating earnings for the fourth quarter, driven largely by weakness in its insurance business.Operating earnings totaled $10.2 billion in the period, down more than 29% from $14.56 billion a year earlier. Insurance underwriting profits fell 54% to $1.56 billion from $3.41 billion in the year-earlier quarter.

The conglomerate’s new CEO Greg Abel, who took the baton from Warren Buffett from the start of 2026, used his first annual shareholder letter to reassure investors that the conglomerate’s culture of financial conservatism and disciplined investing will continue “into perpetuity.” For now, many investors appear satisfied that Abel has preserved the blueprint Buffett carefully orchestrated over six decades.

— Yun Li

Software stocks rallied, as investors took the early morning selloff as an opportunity to buy the dip in the beaten-down tech names.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) jumped 1.5% in midday trading. The IGV remains more than 29% off its recent high, and has plunged more than 21% year to date.

— Sarah Min

Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1-day

The S&P 500 traded just above the flatline in late morning trading on Monday.

The broad market index had fallen as low as 1.2% during the session.

S&P 500, 1-day

Nasdaq Composite, 1-day

U.S. factory activity expanded at a slightly slower pace in February as the number of companies reporting higher prices soared, the Institute for Supply Management reported.

The ISM manufacturing index posted a reading of 52.4 for the month, down just barely from the 52.6 in January and above the cutoff line for expansion of 50. The number represents the percentage of managers reporting growth in activity. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 52.0.

Within the survey, the prices index soared 11.5 points to 70.5. Backlogs jumped 5 points, imports rose 4.9 points and the employment index edged higher to 48.8, still in contraction territory.

— Jeff Cox

Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame said investors should ignore the U.S.-Iran war as it could be a long-term positive for markets. In fact, when the investor was asked Monday by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” whether he would change anything because of the conflict, he responded with, “Not a single trade.”

“I think long term, this is very, very positive,” Eisman said.

Read the full story here.

— Sarah Min

Stocks started the week off with losses after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 543 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 lost 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite futures declined 1.6%.

— Sean Conlon

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:

• Defense stocks 一 The group rose after a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend that was met with retaliation by the oil producing giant.Lockheed Martinshares also gained 6%, whileNorthrop Grummanwas up 5%.Drone makerAeroVironmentjumped more than 10%.
• Oil stocks 一 Several oil stocks surged following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on fears the conflict could disrupt global crude production and transport.Exxon MobilandChevronshares gained about 4%, whileConocoPhillipswas also up more than 5%. The cost of oil rose, withBrent crudeprices hitting a new 52-week high of more than $78 on Monday.
• Tankers stocks 一 Shares surged following the eruption of military strikes in the Middle East.Frontlinerose more than 5%, whileDHT Holdingsgained 7%, andInternational Seawayswas up 6%.

Read the full list here.

— Liz Napolitano

Exxon Mobil shares, 1-day

Lockheed Martin shares, 1-day

Market fear and a rush to gold happened in tandem Monday as markets reacted to the crisis in the Middle East.

The Cboe Volatility Index, an S&P 500 options-based measure that gauges how traders feel about market conditions over the next 30 days, surged 18% in early action. The move took the VIX over its long-run trend around 20, though the level was far from anything suggesting market panic.

At the same time, spot gold prices accelerated more than 2%, pushing the yellow metal and traditional inflation hedge to near $5,400 an ounce.

Vix move

Theescalating war in the Middle Easthas ratcheted up fears of prolonged disruption to global trade via key maritime corridors like theStrait of Hormuzand the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Container shipping giants have suspended operations through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and rerouted vessels around the southern tip of Africa, followingU.S. and Israel strikes on Iranover the weekend.

Danish shipping company Maersksaidin a statement that it would suspend all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, warning that services calling ports in the Arabian Gulf may experience delays. Read more.

— Sam Meredith

Oil prices have soared after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran continued on Sunday night.

Brent crudeprices hit a new 52-week high on Monday, surging 9.3% to reach $79.40, while U.S.West Texas Intermediateprices also rose more than 9% to $73.10.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the “overwhelming military offensive” — which he has dubbed Operation Epic Fury — would continue until the U.S.’s objectives are achieved. Israel launched fresh strikes against both Iran and against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon late on Sunday, which came after Iran attacked military and infrastructure targets across several countries in the region. Read more.

— Hugh Leask

European stocks opened the new trading week firmly in negative territory as global markets dropped after the U.S. and Israel launched widespread attacks on Iran at the weekend.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 1.8% shortly after 8:30 a.m. in London (3:00 a.m. ET), with all major bourses and sectors except for oil and gas in retreat.

Norwegian oil and gas exporters Vår Energi and Equinor led the Stoxx 600, each gaining more than 9% as concerns over global energy supplies grow. Read more.

— Holly Ellyatt

Oil prices surged as investors priced in the risk of a broader Middle East conflict and lifted gold’s safe haven appeal.

U.S. crudeoil was around 8.5% higher at 2:27 a.m. ET, trading around $72.81 a barrel. Global benchmarkBrentjumped over 9%, to trade around $79.53.

Crude

Gold, a classic safe haven, climbed on heightened geopolitical uncertainty and softer bond yields, reinforcing its traditional role as a hedge during periods of stress.

Spot gold rose 2.46%, while gold futures jumped 3.5%.

Gold

“There’s clearly some tactical rotation into precious metals, especially in an environment defined by geopolitical stress and currency debasement concerns,” said Kurt Hemecker, CEO of Gold Token SA.

Bitcoin pared earlier losses to tick higher. It was trading around $65,851 at 2:32 a.m. ET, well below its October peak of around $126,000.

Read the full article here more here.

— Lim Hui Jie, Lee Ying Shan

European stocks are expected to start the new trading week firmly in negative territory as global markets drop after the U.S. and Israel launched widespread attacks on Iran at the weekend.

The U.K.’sFTSEindex is seen opening 0.6% lower, Germany’sDAXdown 1.5%, France’sCAC 40down 1.4% and Italy’sFTSE MIB1.2% lower, according to data from IG. Read more.

— Holly Ellyatt

Amazon Web Services said Sunday it was working to fix a disruption it suffered in the United Arab Emirates after unidentified “objects” struck one of its data centers, sparking a fire and leading to a power cut.

It comes as the UAE is being targeted by Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes following U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country over the weekend.

AWS said on its health dashboard that the issue had led to some ongoing connectivity disruptions, but customers were able to reroute to unaffected zones.

In its latest update, AWS said it still did not have an estimated time for power restoration. “We are investigating additional connectivity issues and error rates in the ME-CENTRAL-1 Region [UAE],” the company said.

— Dylan Butts

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to update top leaders of the Senate and House at 4 p.m. ET on Monday.

This comes on the back of coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, and Tehran’s retaliation that has seen it target U.S. bases in the region, including those in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

— Lee Ying Shan

Asia-Pacific stock markets tumbled Monday as the conflict between Iran and U.S.-Israel escalates.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%, paring some earlier losses, while the Topix dropped 1.34%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened 1.15% lower, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.25%.

Australia’sS&P/ASX 200 fell 0.48%, with losses partially offset by gains in its oil and gold mining sectors.

— Lim Hui Jie

Wells Fargo strategists mapped out a sharp downside for equities if the Middle East conflict triggers a sustained energy shock.

“In the event of prolonged Hormuz closure and an oil shock to $100+ per barrel, we forecast 6000 on the S&P 500 as the worst-case scenario,” the bank wrote. The level of 6,000 indicates a near 13% decline from Friday’s close of 6,878.88.

A lasting disruption through the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s key oil chokepoint — would likely push crude well above recent levels, squeeze margins and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Still, Wells Fargo emphasized that this is a tail risk case. Its base forecast calls for the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 by the end of 2026.

— Yun Li

Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson said the equity market’s reaction will hinge less on headline risk and more on the durability of any energy shock.

“In equities, the impact of a risk and growth shock is clearly negative, but only a severe and sustained oil price disruption (as in 1990 or 2022, for instance) would have large effects on the global growth picture,” Wilson wrote in a note to clients.

He cautioned that cyclical sectors could bear the brunt in the near term, particularly those tied closely to global trade and industrial demand. Oil importers may also face outsized pressure, especially after strong year-to-date gains that leave positioning vulnerable to declines, he added.

— Yun Li